Predictive models paint quite a grim picture for what could be on the horizon in Daviess County. While local health officials don’t necessarily put stock in the specific numbers of any particular model, they agree with the concept: safety measures will dramatically reduce the number of lives lost to COVID-19.
It’s all about “flattening the curve” — a term that’s become all too familiar during this pandemic.
But even a flat curve could bring with it bad news.
Take the model from Covid Act Now that was presented by Gov. Andy Beshear during his Friday address to the public. It detailed three curves — one with limited action, one in which there was only some social distancing and one at which there was a significant amount of social distancing.
For the state, their model predicted:
• 47,000 deaths with limited action
• 13,000 deaths with a 3-month stay-at-home order — but poor compliance
• 2,000 deaths with a 3-month stay-at-home order — and strict compliance
When we apply that same model to Daviess County without changing variables, that means:
• 1,058 deaths with limited action
• 293 deaths with a 3-month stay-at-home order — but poor compliance
• 45 deaths with a 3-month stay-at-home order — and strict compliance
“I hope to do better than the strict compliance,” Beshear said. “These are Kentuckians. They’re counting on us. Let’s make sure we do what we need to do to protect those that are around us.”
Officials at Owensboro Health and Green River District Health Department said though models like those vary in their specific numbers, the sizeable dropoffs paint a clear picture.
“The models that are out there are nice to kind of generally get the concept that we’ve talked about — the social distancing, the staying at home and trying to do all these measures to flatten the curve,” said OH Vice President of Medical Affairs Michael Kelley. “(Those measures) would hopefully suppress the height and peak of that curve and will end up creating a situation where we spread out cases that come to the hospital over time.”
GRDHD Director Clay Horton said the models are still useful in helping people understand the seriousness of the virus.
“If you look at the difference in the high and the low in that model, that tells me it’s worth doing,” he said of a similar model. “The important message there is the huge gap between no intervention and intervention. We need to strive to keep cases as low as possible. If we do this social distancing thing right, that will happen.”
Horton said a lot of those models he has looked at show Kentucky peaking two to four weeks after the rest of the U.S.
“The longer we can delay the peak, the less strain we’re going to put on our healthcare system,” he said. “That means those efforts are worthwhile.”
Having a late peak is actually a good thing, because that means the curve is lower — which in turn means fewer people at a time need to seek professional care.
“The real danger is having too many infected at the same time, and that overwhelms your healthcare system,” Horton said. “If we can spread it out, we can conserve those healthcare resources over time. Some people will recover and get better and that frees up resources for people that get infected later.”
Kelley said the hospital has been doing everything they can to prepare for a potential surge, but he’s hoping it doesn’t come to that.
“We just have to prepare for the worst-case scenario and hope for the best.”
As of Friday, Daviess County had 55 total patients who had tested positive for COVID-19. There has been one death in the county, though 17 others have fully recovered.
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The Owensboro Health coronavirus hotline is available 24/7 by calling 877-888-6647. Call the hotline before seeking in-person care. More information from OH can be found here.
For the latest information and data on COVID-19 in Kentucky visit kycovid19.ky.gov or dial the Kentucky state hotline at 800-722-5725.
For the latest health guidelines and resources from the CDC, visit their website here.
