Though the local economy is taking a hit from the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, the City of Owensboro is faring slightly better than average than the rest of the nation.
A vulnerability index gauges the negative impact COVID-19 can have on jobs in a region based upon the industries present in the area — including their expected job losses.
According to Brittaney Johnson, Greater Owensboro Economic Development Corp. (EDC) president and CEO, Owensboro’s 96.56 rating falls below the average vulnerability index of 100.
“Higher scores indicate the degree to which job losses may be greater,” Johnson said. “An index of 200, for example, means the rate of job loss can be twice as large as the national average. Conversely, an index of 50 would mean a possible job loss of half the national average.”
Johnson said all decisions regarding the reopening of the economy fall on Gov. Andy Beshear’s orders. Currently, Beshear is working with seven other states across the Midwest in developing a plan for reopening the regional economy.
From a business perspective, there’s a lot of uncertainty about which industries will be hit hardest by the shutdowns and global recession. Johnson said right now, it’s hard to predict what the local economy will look like in its second through fourth quarters.
“Economists are looking at gross domestic product to drop 14-40 percent during [the second quarter],” she said. “They are also predicting the unemployment rate could be in double digits.”
The unemployment rate was at 3.5 percent in February, matching a 50-year low, Johnson added.
However, the upcoming expected downturn for the next six months is “sharp, but short,” she said.
“That is a sharp contrast to the Great Depression, when the economy contracted for 43 months,” she said. “While we don’t expect the U.S. economy to go into a depression, we do expect a two-quarter recession starting in the second quarter of this year.”
All economic forecasts rely on assumptions, Johnson said, but the great uncertainty over the spread of COVID-19 and its timeline creates greater divergence than usual.
“The one factor that is consistent in all forecasts is that the downturn related to COVID-19 will end,” Johnson said. “Some forecasts say it will be sooner rather than later and will result in a rebound in growth.”
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The Owensboro Health coronavirus hotline is available 24/7 by calling 877-888-6647. Call the hotline before seeking in-person care. More information from OH can be found here.
For the latest information and data on COVID-19 in Kentucky visit kycovid19.ky.gov or dial the Kentucky state hotline at 800-722-5725.
For the latest health guidelines and resources from the CDC, visit their website here.
