Officials with the local health department confirmed Monday that Daviess County is currently experiencing an exponential rise in the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths. The primary cause behind the uptick hasn’t been related to nursing homes or the reopening of schools — instead, officials said it’s from a lack of physical distancing and mask wearing.
If the situation continues to escalate, Green River District Health Department Director Clay Horton said he expects Daviess County will surpass 25 new cases per day per 100,000 by the end of this week.
If that happens, the health department will strongly recommend all school districts resume distance learning until the number of cases decreases.
Since Sept. 25, a total of 642 coronavirus cases have been reported across the seven-county Green River District — with 217 of those in Daviess County. On Saturday, the health department recorded 140 new cases — a new single-day high — which brought the weekly total to 450, the district’s most ever in a week.
Only 381 recoveries across the district were reported in that same timeframe — a 59.3% recovery rate.
Horton said the health department has been worried about the number of positive cases they’d been seeing over the last few weeks. Though many of the cases in far western counties — such as Union and Webster — have been attributed to outbreaks at long-term care facilities, the cases in Daviess County have not.
“And the numbers are up here anyway,” Horton said. “It’s not a complicated answer. It’s simply a high rate of interactions between individuals.”
Daviess County residents have been “out and about” more often, Horton said. The problem is, he said, many of those individuals are continuing to not wear masks or distance themselves from one another when they interact.
Horton said people might think that because the average age of COVID-19 cases has hovered around 42 to 43 years of age that there’s not much to worry about, but that isn’t the case. When COVID-19 cases increase across a county, he said, so does the number of hospitalizations and deaths — even if the younger people aren’t the ones dying or being hospitalized.
Over the last few weeks, the most coronavirus cases have been reported from those between 20 and 29 years of age. Four more deaths in Daviess County have been reported since Sept. 25 — a 1.8% fatality rate based on the number of positive cases since then — while 37 people are currently hospitalized at Owensboro Health Regional Hospital.
“With the number of deaths going up, that’s what you’d expect to see following an increase in cases,” Horton said. “It’s tragic. We’d like to avoid that. The fact that we’re seeing more cases, even in younger people, leads to more deaths.”
Horton said he had not been in talks with Judge-Executive Al Mattingly about implementing another countywide executive order because health experts now know how COVID-19 can be prevented, even if people are continuing not to follow that guidance.
“You have to wear masks and space out. Both need to happen, especially in indoor settings,” he said. “People need to rethink their get-togethers, even with family. They need to think about how they can do that in a safe way. There are smart ways to approach this and make sure we stop the spread. Take it to heart. It is within your control. You’re taking care of not only your well being, but the well being of those you care about.”
Horton said the health department isn’t seeing a direct correlation between the increase in cases and the reopening of schools, but there have been quarantines of athletic teams, students and staff. The problem in reopening schools has mostly manifested itself in a shifting of peoples’ attitudes.
“It’s shifted our behaviors and attitudes. It’s shifted our daily patterns,” he said. “Their habits and routines have changed.”
Horton said he continues to worry about increasing cases, hospitalizations and deaths in Daviess County if those attitudes and behaviors don’t soon change.
“Daviess County was solidly in the orange [level] for weeks. Now we’re crossing over that threshold into 25 cases per 100,000 people,” he said. “I see that happening by the end of this week.”
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