The pairings are set for the boys’ and girls’ Sweet Sixteen basketball state tournaments following Monday’s live draw by the Kentucky High School Athletic Association.
It’s a favorable opening round for the 3rd Region boys’ champion in the Whitaker Bank/KHSAA Boys’ Sweet Sixteen, scheduled for March 6-19 at Rupp Arena. It’s a tough road from there, with 18 of the top 25 boys’ teams in the same half of the bracket.
For the 3rd Region girls’ winner, the Sweet Sixteen could be difficult from the start with a potential meeting with No. 18 Elizabethtown. The girls’ tournament, scheduled for March 13-17, will be held at Rupp Arena for the first time ever.
With a few weeks left in the regular season and the chaos that can come with district and region tournaments yet to unfold, there is no guarantee which teams will make it out of the 3rd Region. Based on current records and the latest Cantrall Ratings, here’s a preview of the first couple of round for both the boys’ and girls’ state tournaments.
BOYS – Click for 2019 Whitaker Bank/KHSAA Boys’ Sweet Sixteen Bracket
According to the Cantrall Ratings, Breckinridge County (74.7 rating, 18-2 record) would be the favorites to win the 3rd Region. Owensboro Catholic (69.9, 13-6) and Owensboro (69.9, 13-7) aren’t far behind.
However, the Red Devils have already beaten Owensboro Catholic twice with a third meeting coming soon, and they face Breckinridge County on Tuesday in a game that could determine who will really be the favorite to advance.
Outlook:
Whoever comes out of the 3rd Region will open the tournament against the 16th Region champion. Elliott County (71.4, 16-3) is the favorite to win, though Rowan County (62.0, 19-2) could make another trip to state. No 16th Region team has won a first-round game since the 2011-12 season.
Should the 3rd Region champion advance, the second round would be a tough test. They would face the winner of the 7th vs. 15th Region opening round. Shelby Valley (71.3) is the favorite of the 15th Region, but likely would not be able to get past anyone they would play in the first game.
The 7th Region features No. 2 Trinity (84.0, 17-6), No. 7 Waggener (80.8, 80.8) and No. 10 Ballard, as well as four other teams with a Cantrall Rating of at least 71.6.
Other top 25 teams from the remaining region pairings in the top half of the bracket are: No. 1 Scott County, No. 3 Campbell County, No. 4 John Hardin, No. 5 Henry Clay, No. 9 Madison Central, No. 12 LaRue County, No. 13 Woodford County, No. 14 Lexington Christian, No. 16 George Rogers Clark, No. 17 Walton-Verona, No. 20 Frankfort, No. 22 Simon Kenton, No. 23 South Oldham, No. 24 Oldham County and No. 24 Lexington Catholic.
GIRLS – Click for 2019 Sweet Sixteen Bracket
Owensboro Catholic — currently ranked No. 20 with an 80.8 Cantrall Rating — are the heavy favorites to win the 3rd Region. Apollo (61.6, 11-10) hung close a couple of weeks ago, but the Lady Aces just one the All “A” Classic and will be tough to stop if they maintain that momentum.
The team with the next best chance is Breckinridge County (66.4, 15-5), and they’ll play Owensboro Catholic in the final game of the regular season to see how they stack up.
Outlook:
The 3rd Region winner will face off against the 5th Region champion, most likely to be No. 8 Elizabethtown (83.9, 20-4), though Bardstown (20-2) or Marion County (19-4) could pull off the upset.
The second round could be just as tough, as the most likely opponent will be No. 1 Scott County (87.2, 22-1). Scott County should have no trouble making the field, and the winner of the 14th Region likely wouldn’t be able to get the upset.
No team in the 14th Region has less than five losses, and Knott County Central (16-6) has the highest rating at 61.6.
Other top 25 teams from the remaining region pairings in the top half of the bracket are: No. 2 Conner, No. 3 Ryle, No. 9 Scott, No. 12 Butler, No. 16 Bullitt East, No. 17 Mercy, No. 20 Graves and No. 20 George Rogers Clark.
