A Severe Weather Outbreak is expected on Wednesday, according to the National Weather Service in Paducah. Widespread damaging winds, tornadoes, large hail, and flash flooding are expected.
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The NWS provided the following information (for presentation with graphics detailing the forecasts, click here):
Severe Weather Outbreak Wednesday
Widespread Damaging Winds, Tornadoes, Large Hail, and Flash Flooding Expected
Key Messages
- Two rounds of storms are expected. The first round will occur late tonight into early Wednesday morning.
- A widespread severe weather outbreak is expected Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.
- Widespread damaging winds, tornadoes (some possibly strong), and large hail expected with this second round of storms Wednesday afternoon and evening.
- Flash flooding will be possible, especially across west Kentucky.
Important Updates
- Much of the region has been added to a moderate risk of severe weather for Wednesday.
- Flood watch issued for parts of SE MO, W KY, and S IL.
Tonight’s Convective Outlook
Late tonight into early Wednesday morning
Key Messages
- Timing will be late tonight through early Wednesday morning.
- A couple severe storms with large hail will be possible.
- Heavy rain and flash flooding will be a concern, especially over west Kentucky.
Severe Threats
- Tornado: Lo
- Hail: Lo-Mid
- Wind: Lo
- Flooding: Mid
Wednesday’s Convective Outlook
Severe weather outbreak expected
Timing
- Roughly from 1 PM through 9 PM
Actions
- Be weather aware and ready to act. Have multiple ways to receive warning information!
Severe Threats
- Tornadoes: Several tornadoes possible, some possibly strong.
- Large Hail: Isolated to scattered hail up to 2” possible.
- Damaging Wind: Widespread gusts of 60 to 80 mph expected.
Other Considerations
Forecast Confidence Levels
Confidence Details
- Confidence in timing is medium-high. Timing for the main round of storms looks to be from the afternoon into the evening.
- Confidence in location and impacts is high. The entire region is under the threat for severe weather. Widespread damaging wind gusts are likely. Large hail, tornadoes, and flash flooding all possible too.
Alternate Scenarios
- If discrete storms develop ahead of the main line of thunderstorms in the afternoon, the threat of strong/long-track tornadoes will increase.
- If these discrete storms do not develop, the tornado threat will be more brief in nature as they will be embedded within the squall line.
