Daviess County is projected to continue adding residents through 2050 while several neighboring counties are expected to lose population, according to new demographic projections.
The data was released by the Kentucky State Data Center, a University of Louisville-based research organization that serves as Kentucky’s official partner in the U.S. Census Bureau’s State Data Center Program.
The report forecasts Daviess County’s population will grow from an estimated 104,898 residents in 2025 to 111,563 by 2050 — an increase of 6,665 people, or 6.4% — while the Green River Area Development District as a whole is projected to decline from 216,969 residents to 210,256 during the same period.
Other county projections include:
- Henderson County declining from 44,255 residents to 36,878
- McLean County dropping from 9,064 residents to 7,792
- Hancock County dipping from 9,050 to 8,881 residents.
Claude Bacon, president and CEO of the Greater Owensboro Economic Development Corporation, said the county’s projected growth reflects decades of community investment.
“We’re grateful for the growth Daviess County is projected to experience, and we don’t take it for granted,” Bacon said. “A lot of it comes down to the investments our community has made over many years in infrastructure, workforce development, healthcare, and quality of life.”
Bacon said Owensboro has intentionally positioned itself as a regional hub while benefiting from the strengths of surrounding counties.
“Our neighboring counties are an important part of that success,” he said. “Their strengths in agriculture, manufacturing, and community character contribute to the vitality of the entire region.”
The report projects Daviess County’s growth rate will outpace Kentucky’s overall projected population growth of 5.1% between 2025 and 2050.
Daviess County Judge-Executive Charlie Castlen said the projections point to a strong local economy and continued opportunities for residents.
“I believe that our projected growth is a sign that our local economy is strong and we have opportunities for our citizens to make a comfortable living in an environment where things are more affordable than in bigger cities,” Castlen said.
Castlen noted Daviess County continues to grow despite lacking a major university, which has helped fuel growth in some of Kentucky’s largest counties.
To support future growth, Castlen pointed to investments in public safety, transportation, and quality-of-life amenities.
Among the projects he highlighted were the planned Public Safety Facility near the WKU-Owensboro and Owensboro Community and Technical College campuses, improvements to KY 54 and Thruston-Dermont Road, a proposed I-165 interchange, and continued support for Owensboro-Daviess County Regional Airport.
He also cited ongoing investments in county parks, the new Senior Community Center, tourism attractions, and community events.
Owensboro City Manager Nate Pagan said the projected growth places the community in a favorable position compared to areas experiencing either rapid expansion or population decline.
“We’re not seeing explosive growth and the problems that come with that,” Pagan said. “We’re not seeing a decline and the issues that come with that. We’re sort of in a sweet spot in the middle where it’s sustainable, reasonable growth.”
Pagan said population trends often follow economic opportunity, with residents gravitating toward larger employment centers.
“I think it’s basically people following job opportunities and economic opportunities, which typically are in the more urban areas,” he said.
He also pointed to investments made over the past two decades in parks, downtown development, and other quality-of-life initiatives that have helped make Owensboro an attractive destination.
Pagan said one of the benefits of moderate growth is that it allows local governments to expand and improve existing infrastructure rather than build entirely new systems.
“It requires continued infrastructure improvement, but it’s basically modifications and expansions as opposed to all-new infrastructure, which is entirely more expensive,” he said.
The city manager added that workforce growth remains one of the most important economic development indicators and said a growing population can help employers find the workers they need.
One aspect of the report that stood out to Pagan was the role migration has played in Kentucky’s recent population growth.
“A large portion of our growth was actually in international relocations,” he said. “I thought the percentage of that was actually pretty interesting.”
Statewide, Kentucky’s population is projected to increase from 4.61 million residents in 2025 to 4.84 million by 2050, adding nearly 234,000 people over the next quarter century.
