Is the curve of positive COVID-19 cases flattening out across Daviess County? According to local health officials the answer is yes, and it’s all due to social distancing and community mitigation.
During a Tuesday conference led by Daviess County Emergency Management Agency (DCEMA), several community leaders offered updates about the spread of the novel coronavirus.
Owensboro Health President and CEO Greg Strahan said the hospital had begun to see the curve flatten in regard to positive COVID-19 cases.
Strahan thanked the citizens of Owensboro and Daviess for their social distancing efforts over the last month or so.
“It has made a tremendous impact on the institution,” he said. “I think we are seeing a fair amount of flattening in our services here in terms of COVID positive testing we’ve had, and the number of people in the hospital.”
Earlier that day, Strahan received a report from a doctor at the University of Kentucky who said a study conducted at eight regional hospitals — including OH — revealed the number of positive COVID-19 cases to be much lower than originally expected.
“That’s a good thing,” Strahan said, commending DCEMA for working with the hospital on a surge plan that would open up the Owensboro Convention Center to accept a high number of cases that might hit the area. Strahan said he hoped that surge plan wouldn’t be necessary.
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The predictive model pictured in the image above is adapted from the Covid Act Now model presented daily by Gov. Andy Beshear for the state of Kentucky. It details three curves — one with limited action, one in which there was only some social distancing and one at which there was a significant amount of social distancing. Click here for more information about how the numbers are calculated.
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OH Chief Medical Officer Francis DuFrayne agreed that things were looking better from the hospital’s perspective, adding that the number of individuals requesting and needing COVID-19 tests had started to decline. He added that the turnaround time for test results has improved to just a two-day wait.
OH has tested 1,084 individuals across the counties they serve as of Tuesday evening, with 130 positive results, 877 negative and 77 still pending.
There were 22 patients currently hospitalized on a COVID-19 isolation floor in the hospital’s Intensive Care Unit. All patients were deemed “COVID-related,” DuFrayne said, though only 12 had tested positive while 10 others were awaiting results.
Flattening the curve has been the goal for healthcare providers, as it prevents a surge of hospital patients coming in with severe enough symptoms to require ventilators or additional care. DuFrayne said the state of Kentucky had yet to see a surge of patients come into hospitals, but that he couldn’t speculate if, or when, that surge would occur.
“We’ve seen some models that [predict] April 24 or 25 — we’ve heard those days, but time will tell,” he said, crediting ample time to prepare, Owensboro’s smaller population and social distancing for flattening the local curve so far.
Green River District Health Department Director Clay Horton said there are a number of models that show social distancing and other mitigation efforts are having a positive impact at the state level. However, it’s still too early to crunch the numbers and create a “flattening the curve” model for the local area.
“But we see some encouraging evidence here. We are still getting new cases and we don’t see a significant decrease yet,” Horton said. “However, the number is not sharply increasing either.”
Limited testing availability also makes it difficult to predict where the community’s curve is headed, as a lot of positive cases could be going undetected.
Horton said the Green River District’s three percent fatality rate — lower than the state’s average — is one of many questions without a clear-cut answer right now.
“We don’t really understand why that is. It could be the state’s generally unhealthy status, but it’s too soon to say,” Horton said. “It will be down the road before we fully understand [all the aspects of COVID-19]. We’re in crunch-time, and we’ve got a lot left to do.”
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The Owensboro Health coronavirus hotline is available 24/7 by calling 877-888-6647. Call the hotline before seeking in-person care. More information from OH can be found here.
For the latest information and data on COVID-19 in Kentucky visit kycovid19.ky.gov or dial the Kentucky state hotline at 800-722-5725.
For the latest health guidelines and resources from the CDC, visit their website here.
